TheStreet Pro Portfolio Podcast

AAP Podcast #44 - AAP Podcast #44 –June CPI Progress, the Nasdaq 100 Rebalance, and the June Quarter Earnings Season Set Up

On this week’s episode of the AAP Podcast, AAP’s Chris Versace and Smarts editor Todd Campbell review the better-than-expected June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report but share why the road to the Fed’s 2% target may not be as immediate as some are hoping. Todd breaks down the upcoming special rebalance for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), sharing the ins and outs as well as why investors shouldn’t attempt to game the rebalancing action.
The two then pivot to upcoming bank earnings from JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C), discussing the recent upward move in big bank EPS expectations and some of the reasons behind that. They also discuss what they will be focused on in those reports, and what signals they will be watching for both the economy and the consumer. Chris and Todd also share why they have some reservations about the consumer entering the December quarter, and why in the coming months they will both be watching real wage growth like a hawk. 
 
 
 
 

AAP Podcast #43 - Why Bob Lang is Watching the Cboe Volatility Index

On this post-Independence Day edition of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Bob Lang to discuss the Fed’s latest policy meeting minutes, the consumer and the housing market, membership business models, and the year-end holiday shopping season. Bob shares that he agrees with AAP team member Carley Garner that we could see the S&P 500 reach 4,500-4,520 if not a tad higher, and that he sees strong technical support at 4,400 and again at 4,350 and 4,335. The two also discuss why Bob is closely watching the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and why, at least for now, it suggests wide swings in the market are likely to be kept to a minimum. We also talk about signals in the VIX that would point to wider market swings ahead. Bob and Chris discuss Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), and Costco (COST) as well as Coty (COTY) and Morgan Stanley (MS) during their time together as well as which economic data point each of them will be watching in the coming days.
 
Editor's note: Please be aware a short gap of silence occurs once during the conversation when the signal briefly cuts out.

AAP Podcast #42: Chatting with Carley Garner

On this edition of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace sits down with AAP team member, author, and commodity broker/analyst Carley Garner. Carley has appeared in several Daily Rundowns, sharing her views on the market, but in this conversation, she shares the five items she focuses on when evaluating a position and explains why she dissects each week’s Commitments of Traders report to assess the market mood. Chris and Carley also talk about the importance of seasonality when it comes to the market, with Carley pointing out it tends to be something that gets overlooked by many investors. Patience and conviction were also cited as key ingredients when it comes to investing and trading. The conversation touches on the economy, with both seeing a soft landing, and Carley shares where she sees copper and key ag commodities going in the near term as well as what she sees next for the S&P 500. 
Listeners looking to learn more about commodities and futures should read Carley’s columns at Real Money Pro and check out “A Trader’s First Book on Commodities: Everything You Need to Know About Futures and Options Trading Before Placing a Trade.”

AAP Podcast #41: Drinking it in with The Duckhorn Portfolio Chairman and CEO Alex Ryan

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, lead portfolio manager Chris Versace is joined by Alex Ryan, Chairman and CEO of luxury wine company, The Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA). The conversation starts with Alex tracing back Duckhorn’s wine roots in California, which quickly morphs into an overview of the company’s labels, product offering, market position, and the luxury wine segment.  Describing The Duckhorn Portfolio as a manufacturing company, agricultural company, and a marketing company rolled into one, Alex explains why it’s uniquely positioned vs. other public beverage companies. The conversation also broaches the wine manufacturing process, some helpful tips for wine drinkers, and why The Duckhorn Portfolio is confident it can deliver high single-digit organic top-line growth through 2025 even if a recession rears its head.
For those interested in learning more about Duckhorn’s business, here is a link to its latest Investor Relations presentation.
 

AAP Podcast # 40: Sitting by the Fire with Solo Brands CEO John Merris

In this episode of the AAP Podcast, portfolio manager Chris Versace chats with John Morris, CEO of Solo Brands (DTC), a lifestyle product company that leverages direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels but is also expanded its partnerships with Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Costco (COST), and others. Solo’s brands include Solo Stove, Oru Kayak, Isle, Chubbies, and recently acquired TerraFlame, and while they may seem disjointed Morris explains the rationale behind each one’s position in the larger company. Morris also explains Solo isn’t a company poised to rest on its laurels given the number of new product introductions coming, ones that target its combined customer base across its portfolio of businesses. We also touch on what Solo is seeing in terms of customer demand, inflation pressures, and how the company plans to deliver margin improvement in the coming quarters.
If you want to know more about Solo Brands, you can find its investor relations website here.

AAP Podcast #39: The Debt Ceiling, Yield Curve, and What We’re Watching

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace is joined by Todd Campbell, editor of The Street’s Smarts newsletter. The two start their chat catching up on recent events, including the debt ceiling with Todd recapping how the market responded to the last debt ceiling event in 2011. Chris and Todd then shift gears to the yield curve, oil, the consumer, and the likely course of Fed policy. Todd shares how he’s adapted his trading strategy in the near term, and Chris discusses a recent move with the Action Alert’s Plus portfolio. The conversation winds down with the two discussing AI, including what kinds of companies are poised to benefit and how paying attention to history is likely to be a smart thing.

AAP Podcast #38 – A Conversation with Portillo’s (PTLO) CEO Michael Osanloo

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, lead portfolio manager Chris Versace welcomes Michael Osanloo, the CEO of fast-casual Chicago street food company Portillo’s (PTLO). While not yet a household name, consensus revenue forecasts have the company serving up revenue of $683 million this year, up from $587 million in 2022 and $479 million in 2022 as it continues to expand its footprint and win over diners. Osanloo attributes the success of Portillo’s to its craveable yet affordable menu that has an average check per consumer of $10. As he shares, the menu is not only recession-proof it is also veto-proof with items that appeal to vegetarians, vegans, and flexitarians as well as meat eaters.
The company recently enacted a 3% price increase, which layered on top of the 3.5% increase taken last year and paired with productivity improvements is shaping up to drive margin improvement as food costs improve. Despite those price increases, Osanloo explains the company is intent on continuing to offer family-friendly prices, something Chris sees as a draw for consumers dealing with rising food prices and other inflationary pressures. Like other restaurants, Portillo’s is contending with higher wages, however, Osanloo explains how the management team invests in and leverages its employees, using them to carry the company culture to new locations.

AAP Podcast #37: The Debt Ceiling, Fed Expectations and What to Eat with Kenny Polcari

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, portfolio manager Chris Versace is joined by Kace Capital’s Kenny Polcari. While the two start off chatting about the bygone days of the NYSE floor, they quickly move into talking about all things stock market-related. Kenny shares his view the economy will likely be in a rolling recession and the Fed could very well lift interest rates yet again at the upcoming June policy meeting. Chris brings us continued strength in the services economy but also notes prospects for further inflation pressure there. Both are watching wage pressures as well as the tight labor market.
While the market may rally on a debt ceiling deal, the eventual refocus on the economy, Fed, and other fundamentals are likely to make that rally short-lived according to Kenny. Both shared concerns for “a deal” not “the deal” as well as the debt ceiling conversation bubbling back up during the upcoming presidential election. In terms of stocks, they dished on Bank of America (BAC), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), and several others. And Kenny agrees with Chris and other AAP team members that AI stocks are out over their skis. Finally, be sure to listen as Kenny discusses what he’s making for dinner tonight and it sure sounds tasty!

AAP Podcast #36 – Jawboning with Sarge Guilfolye

This week, Chris Versace welcomes AAP team member Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle to the podcast and the two cover a number of topics, including their past collaborative efforts at TheStreet. The conversation gets underway with Sarge’s background as a hybrid between fundamentals and technical analysis, and he explains how he leverages those viewpoints. The two then discuss target prices, pivots, and panic points, including when to use them, before moving on to topics that include the Fed, the rangebound stock market, whether a recession is likely, and areas of increasing interest for both of them in the stock market. They cap the conversation with thoughts on Big Tech stocks and why they may or may not be revisiting one or two of them. Along the way, several stocks are discussed, including ones in the defense and banking sectors as well as cybersecurity.

AAP Podcast #35: Another Fed rate hike, now what?

Fed Chair Powell recently completed his May Fed policy press conference that followed the Fed’s lifting interest rates by another 25 basis points to 5.00%-5.25%. Joining AAP’s Chris Versace to break it down and dig deeper into the message Powell looked to communicate is Street Smarts’ Todd Campbell. The two start off discussing Powell’s comment the road to 2% inflation isn’t like to be smooth and that the Fed is apt to be at this for some time then shift into Powell’s comment a rate cut isn’t likely in the cards for 2023 based on what he’s seeing. While Powell described the Fed will be looking at many data points and the future course of monetary policy will be data dependent, it sure seemed like he is laser-focused on the jobs market.
Powell attempted to walk that back some, but Chris and Todd dig into that as well as what’s been happening with earnings expectations as we move past the mid-point for the March quarter earnings season. With the market expected to be rangebound, the two discuss what catalysts could break it out to the upside on a sustained basis, and the odds of that happening in the next few months. Todd and Chris also discuss “sell in May and go away” leaning into some data shared by AAP team member Carley Garner.
All that and much more in this post-Fed meeting edition of AAP Podcast.