TheStreet Pro Portfolio Podcast

AAP Podcast #62 – The Fixed Income Perspective with Jim Besaw, CIO of GenTrust

On this edition of the podcast, Chris Versace chats with Jim Besaw, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer at GenTrust, a firm that focuses on investment strategies for high-net-worth individuals, institutions, and family offices. Ahead of the Fed concluding its next policy meeting, we wanted to talk with Jim because of his role at GenTrust but also because of his background in fixed income. That history yields a very different take on the probability of Fed rate cuts than those captured in the CME FedWatch Tool. Jim also shares some of the risks he sees the Fed may look to avoid as they get ready to eventually dial back monetary policy.
Chris and Jim discuss some of the signals Jim is watching when it comes to the economy and a potential recession as well as how GenTrust thinks about putting capital to work in the current market environment. That prompts a conversation about the Magnificent Seven, P/E multiples, and AI, with Jim sharing how his firm has used AI since 2015. We close out the conversation by asking Jim how equity investors should approach the fixed-income markets when investing and qualities investors should look for in investment candidates ahead of what looks to be a wave of debt refinancing in the next several quarters.  

AAP Podcast #61: Back with Jack Truong, Talking the Housing Market

On this episode of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace reconnects with Jack Truong, former CEO of James Hardie and Electrolux North America. While the conversation starts off talking about expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, it quickly turns to the US housing market. Jack explains why he is bullish on the housing market long-term, but he sees several headwinds that could restrain it over the coming quarters.
As the Silver Tsunami trades down and Airbnb (ABNB) speculators throw in the towel, he sees Millennials entering the housing market. The key isn’t interest rate cuts, but in Jack’s view lower housing prices. Chris and Jack also talk about factors investors should consider when identifying homebuilding stocks and what drives repair and remodel spending. Jack also shares why he isn’t bullish on the shares of Home Depot (HD) or Lowe’s (LOW) near-term, and which geopolitical risk he thinks isn’t getting the attention it deserves.

AAP Podcast #60 – Market Technicals, the Fed, and More with Bob Lang

As we approach the end of this short first trading week of 2024, we are back with a fresh AAP podcast episode with Chris Versace, who is joined by Bob Lang. The two discuss the fizzle that was the Santa Claus Rally and explain why it’s not a major factor in their investment decision-making process. The conversation shifts to the market action this week and the factors both fundamental and technical driving it.
Bob shares the technical support levels for the S&P 500 that he’s watching, and notes we have a bevy of Fed heads coming that could throw some cold water on market rate cut expectations. Chris reviews this week’s data, explaining why it supports the Fed not rushing to cut rates, and how one item adds another reason to be concerned about earnings guidance when the 4Q 2023 earning season gets underway. As the two discuss, that season begins with bank earnings late next week, with results from Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC). We end the conversation talking about the change to the Fed’s voting committee, and how that might influence monetary policy compared to last year.

AAP Podcast #59 – Ending 2023 with Sarge Guilfoyle

In our last AAP podcast of 2023, Chris Versace is joined by his former Stocks Under $10 partner in crime and author of the Morning Recon at Real Money Pro, Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle. The conversation begins with why Sarge gets up at 3:30 AM ET every morning but quickly gets into the two discussing the market’s meteoric rise since late October. Neither thinks the Fed will cut interest rates 6 to 7 times next year but both agree that if it's more than three rate cuts it could be a much bigger issue for investors. Both also express concern over market expectations for the basket of S&P 500 companies to grow their earnings by more than 11% in 2024 compared to 2023. Sarge and Chris also agree the current market melt-up is likely to continue into early 2024, but both are wary about the start of the December quarter earnings season.
With that in mind, Sarge points out that the January-February time frame can be a tricky time for the market and a challenging one for investors. That’s why we at AAP have used the market’s strength and now overbought condition to selectively book some of the big moves in our positions, building our shopping list and continuing to own our market hedging, inverse ETF positions.

AAP Podcast #58 - Back with Bob Lang

Bob Lang joins us on this week’s edition of the AAP Podcast as he chats with Chris Versace about the current state of the stock market, sharing why he sees 2023 closing out on a high note with the upcoming Santa Claus Rally. Moving into 2024 the two talk about the upcoming re-jiggering of Fed voting members, what that could mean for Fed policy, and how upcoming data is viewed. 
Chris gives a few reasons as to why we’re likely to see further progress in the November inflation data, including next week’s CPI report, while Bob shares why he saw this week’s 3Q 2023 Productivity data as very important. The two discuss the market’s expectation for four rate cuts next year and why the market could be getting ahead of itself with that thinking. The two touch on next week’s Fed policy meeting and why they will be closely reviewing the Fed’s updated economic projections.
The conversation then pivots to the holiday shopping season, touching on their boots-on-the-ground observations for Williams Sonoma (WSM), Gap (GPS), Costco (COST), and several other retailers.

AAP Podcast #57 - Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital

Sitting down with AAP’s Chris Versace on this podcast episode is Jay Woods, Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, CMT Association Board Member, and former NYSE Executive Floor Governor. Chris and Jay have had many conversations about market dynamics and following the market’s strong November move, we’re sharing their latest back-and-forth. While Chris is a longer-term investor that blends fundamentals and thematics, Jay’s time horizon spans two to three months and as he shares, his focus is on price action. Different approaches but that makes for good conversations about the market and stocks.
During the conversation, Jay shares why the market rally has been a textbook example, why he sees the market strength continuing into 2024, and why he’s watching small-cap stocks as we start the new year. He also shares how he starts his top-down approach to looking at the market, and his prediction for which company is likely to see its shares ejected from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

AAP Podcast #56: The Lowdown on AI with Toggle.AI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a big market driver, which is why Chris Versace sat down with RJ Assaly, Chief Product Officer at Toggle.AI, a Fintech platform that uses AI to analyze “billions of data points” to help institutional and individual investors with insights, not noise. Amid the AI hype and hopium that generated over the last several months, Assaly confirms we are only in the early innings of AI, where the technology primarily serves as a productivity driver. In the case of Toggle, that means helping investors cut through haystacks of data to find the needles they are looking for. The two discuss the significance of Generative AI and how that changed AI’s use case as well as how the interlinking of systems can drive even greater productivity. Versace and Assaly also touch on potential cyber-related issues as well as why it’s important to be aware of data permissions with each AI platform.

AAP Podcast #55 – Healthy Beverages with Todd Gibson of Yerbaé Beverage Company

In this edition of the AAP Podcast, Chris Versace sits down with Yerbaé Beverage (YERBF) CEO Todd Gibson, who, having sold multiple beverage businesses to the likes of Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP), is no stranger to the global beverage business. Todd explains why Yerbaé is focused on healthy and natural ingredients for its products resulting in a very different offering compared to those from Monster Beverage (MNSTR) and Celsius Fitness Drinks (CELH). Todd also discusses Yerbae’s current distribution footprint and where it's going as well as why the company prunes its beverage portfolio every year to make room for new offerings. The two also talk about Yerbae’s definition of clean products, the company’s five pillars, and how it also develops its new flavors.
Regarding our position in PepsiCo, Todd shares inflation pressure in the beverage industry continues to level off with notable improvement in prices for cans and other raw materials and freight costs. That suggests we could see some additional margin leverage at PepsiCo during the strongest quarter of the year for its beverage and snacking business.

AAP Podcast #54 – Green Shoots for the Stock Market You Say?

Smarts editor Todd Campbell joins AAP’s Chris Versace on this week’s podcast and as you’ll hear Todd is coming in rather feisty. Hot on the heels of Fed Chair Powell’s appearance at the Economic Club of New York, Todd shares his view that there is simply too much negativity in the market and if you look carefully enough, some green shoots may be emerging.
While Chris doesn’t dismiss Todd’s argument, he shares he will continue to position the AAP portfolio based on the evolving data landscape, particularly for Fed policy. As he points out, while many are focused on whether the Fed will stop hiking rates, when the Fed starts to signal it is ready to begin cutting rates is as important. To that Todd shared he doesn’t see a rate cut coming until this time next year, which is four months later than the market now expects. In defending his rationale, he points out the market has consistently missed the market on calling the moves in Fed policy so far this year.
The conversation continues with thoughts on the 2023 holiday shopping season, Google (GOOGL), and the current earnings season.

AAP Podcast # 53 – Hot PPI Data, Earnings, and Market Seasonality with Bob Lang

We are back with a new AAP Podcast with lead portfolio manager Chris Versace joined by Bob Lang. It’s been a bit since our last podcast with Helene Meisler, and some is catching up to do, but as that is done the conversation quickly shifts gears to the market, the Fed, and the data driving it all. Bob comes out swinging, aiming the Fed’s updated economic projections for being too conservative, especially given the economic data that led the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Model to up its outlook for the September quarter.
That gives way to discussing inflation and wage pressures, something the team is watching closely, as well as the hotter-than-expected September Producer Price Index. The two discuss their concern the market may be too complacent when it comes to the aggregate data of late. It may give rise to yet another market re-think on what the Fed needs to do, and this could come in two different forms. The conversation ends by discussing market seasonality, which Bob sees as being favorable between mid-October and the Thanksgiving holidays, and the September quarter earnings. While discussing recently revised guidance from airline stocks, Levi Strauss (LEVI), and disappointing quarterly results from LVMH Moet Hennessey Louis Vuitton (LVMHF), we also explain why, as an investor, it’s important to know what you own.